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Plate tectonic reconstructions of three of the best-defined Cenozoic subduction initiation (SI) events in the western Pacific, Izu-Bonin-Mariana, Vanuatu, and Puysegur subduction zones, show substantial components of strike-slip motion before and during the subduction initiation. Using computational models, we show that strike-slip motion has a large influence on the effective strength of incipient margins and the ease of subduction initiation. The parameter space associated with visco-elasto-plastic rheologies, plate weakening, and plate forces and kinematics is explored and we show that subduction initiates more easily with a higher force, a faster weakening, or greater strike-slip motion. With the analytical solution, we demonstrate that the effect of strike-slip motion can be equivalently represented by a modified weakening rate. Along transpressive margins, we show that a block of oceanic crust can become trapped between a new thrust fault and the antecedent strike-slip fault and is consistent with structural reconstructions and gravity models of the Puysegur margin. Together, models and observations suggest that subduction initiation can be triggered when margins become progressively weakened to the point that the resisting forces become smaller than the driving forces, and as the negative buoyancy builds up, the intraplate stress eventually turns from compressional into extensional. The analytical formulation of the initiation time,t_SI, marking the moment when intraplate stress flips sign, is validated with a computational models. The analytical solution shows thatt_SIis dominated by convergence velocity, while the plate age, strike-slip velocity, and weakening rate all have a smaller but still important effect on the time scale of subduction initiation.

 

We aim to simultaneously infer the shape of subsurface structures and material properties such as density or viscosity from surface observations. Modelling mantle flow using incompressible instantaneous Stokes equations, the problem is formulated as an infinite-dimensional Bayesian inverse problem. Subsurface structures are described as level sets of a smooth auxiliary function, allowing for geometric flexibility. As inverting for subsurface structures from surface observations is inherently challenging, knowledge of plate geometries from seismic images is incorporated into the prior probability distributions. The posterior distribution is approximated using a dimension-robust Markov-chain Monte Carlo sampling method, allowing quantification of uncertainties in inferred parameters and shapes. The effectiveness of the method is demonstrated in two numerical examples with synthetic data. In a model with two higher-density sinkers, their shape and location are inferred with moderate uncertainty, but a trade-off between sinker size and density is found. The uncertainty in the inferred is significantly reduced by combining horizontal surface velocities and normal traction data. For a more realistic subduction problem, we construct tailored level-set priors, representing “seismic” knowledge and infer subducting plate geometry with their uncertainty. A trade-off between thickness and viscosity of the plate in the hinge zone is found, consistent with earlier work.

 

SUMMARY The initiation and development of subduction zones are associated with substantial stress changes both within plates and at plate boundaries. We formulate a simple analytical model based on the force balance equation of a subduction zone, and validate it with numerical calculations of highly non-linear, coupled thermomechanical system. With two kinds of boundary conditions with either fixed velocity or fixed force in the far-field, we quantitatively analyse the role of each component in the force balance equation, including slab pull, interplate friction, plate bending and basal traction, on the kinematics and stress state of a subducting plate. Based on the numerical and analytical models, we discuss the evolution of plate curvature, the role of plastic yielding and elasticity, and how different factors affect the timing of subduction initiation. We demonstrate with the presence of plastic yielding for a plate of thickness, H, that the bending force is proportional to H2, instead of H3 as previously thought. Although elasticity increases the force required to start nucleating subduction it does not substantially change the total work required to initiate a subduction zone when the yielding stress is small. The analytical model provides an excellent fit to the total work and time to initiate subduction and the force and velocity as a function of convergence and time. Plate convergence and weakening rate during nucleation are the dominant factors influencing the force balance of the plate, and 200 km of plate convergence is typically required to bring a nascent subduction zone into a self-sustaining state. The closed-form solution now provides a framework to better interpret even more complex, time-dependent systems in three dimensions. 

Plate motions are a primary surface constraint on plate and mantle dynamics and rheology, plate boundary stresses and the occurrence of great earthquakes. Within an optimization method, we use plate motion data to better constrain uncertain mantle parameters. For the optimization problem characterizing the maximum a posteriori rheological parameters we derive gradients using adjoints and expressions to approximate the posterior distributions for stresses within plate boundaries. We apply these methods to a 2-D cross section from the western to eastern Pacific, with temperature distributions and fault zone geometries developed primarily from seismic and plate motion data. We find that the best-fitting stress exponent, n, is about 2.8 and the yield stress about 100 MPa or less. The normal stress on the interplate fault zones is about 100 MPa and the shear stresses about 10 MPa or less.

 

Growth of the Andes has been attributed to Cenozoic subduction. Although climatic and tectonic processes have been proposed to be first-order mechanisms, their interaction and respective contributions remain largely unclear. Here, we apply three-dimensional, fully-dynamic subduction models to investigate the effect of trench-axial sediment transport and subduction on Andean growth, a mechanism that involves both climatic and tectonic processes. We find that the thickness of trench-fill sediments, a proxy of plate coupling (with less sediments causing stronger coupling), exerts an important influence on the pattern of crustal shortening along the Andes. The southward migrating Juan Fernandez Ridge acts as a barrier to the northward flowing trench sediments, thus expanding the zone of plate coupling southward through time. Consequently, the predicted history of Andean shortening is consistent with observations. Southward expanding crustal shortening matches the kinematic history of inferred compression. These results demonstrate the importance of climate-tectonic interaction on mountain building.

 

Strong small‐scale seismic scatters (<10 km) have been recently observed at 660 km depth, but their origin remains uncertain. We systematically conduct both high‐resolution 2‐D geodynamic computations that include realistic thermodynamic properties, synthetic seismic waveforms, and insight from shallow seismic observations to explore their origin. We demonstrate that neither short‐term subduction, nor long‐term mechanical mantle mixing processes can produce sufficiently strong heterogeneities to explain the origin of such small‐scale seismic scatters. Instead, the intrinsic heterogeneities inside the oceanic lithosphere which subducts into the mantle transition zone and the uppermost lower mantle can explain the observed short‐wavelength scatter waves.